By A. Ateiza Alliu
It’s only in Nigeria that people cook the same stew with the same ingredients yesterday and today, but expect the stew from today’s cooking to taste differently from that of yesterday. Just a week ago (penultimate Saturday) in Ibadan, Oyo State, both Peter Obi and Rabiu Kwakwanso pledged their allegiance to ADC and swore to support whoever wins the party’s ticket for the 2027 presidential election. Now, the two of them (Obi and Kwakwanso) are off to another party, the NDC! All within one week! Yes, one whole week!
Without mincing words, we are about to witness a repeat of 2023 in the upcoming 2027 presidential elections: Atiku (probably with Amechi) running on the ADC platform and Peter Obi/Kwakwanso on the NDC ticket. That is Tinubu’s dream! Split the opposition into two or more factions! The more the better! Peter Obi will not win, but, just as in 2023, he will take away the Ibo votes. That will minimize the chances of Atiku. Their spoils will go to Tinubu! Are these people blind? Can’t they see that with what they are doing, they are essentially dancing to Jagaban’s music?
We all know that Tinubu had his eyes on the presidency as far back as 2007 when he left office as Lagos State governor. He knew that his chances were very slim in 2007; so, he seeded the ticket to Atiku. He did the same thing in 2011 when he offered the then AC’s ticket to Nuhu Ribadu. Those were deft political moves. Nobody teaches such moves at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government!
In 2015, Tinubu saw an opening: Jonathan was weak and on the verge of falling (the same situation he himself is in, right now!). But, Jonathan is still in office with all the powers at his disposal to do and undo. You don’t send a jackal to confront a lion, even a wounded lion. You need another lion! There was no better lion at that time than Gen. Muhammadu Buhari. The opposition mobilized all the forces behind him to take on the wounded lion in office. It worked.
If Tinubu had decided to run for the presidency in 2015, he would have lost, and would probably have taken away the Yoruba votes with him. That could have jeopardized Buhari’s chances. It’s common sense; pure political arithmetic! So, Tinubu made the smart choice to support Buhari, stay under his shadow, and build and re-enforce his own political muscle, while waiting for his “turn” in 8 years. He worked from within and it worked well for him. He got the reward of a prince. Irrespective of what he eventually did with that power, many political analysts will rate his calculations up to that point as classic performance. That should be a lesson for the Peter Obi’s of the current scene.
From an objective assessment of Nigeria’s current political environment, the opposition’s best chance is to unite behind a strong name from the Muslim North with a Christian Easterner as Vice (same as APC did with Buhari in 2015). That’s their best chance to defeat a man of immense wealth and power such as Tinubu, with all the tentacles of his government and party. If Peter Obi had aligned with Atiku in 2023 and stayed as his Vice, they would have won that election. Then, he has a good chance of taking over from Atiku in 2031 (the same game that Tinubu played under Buhari’s shadow).
However, it seems that Peter Obi vehemently believes that he can win the presidency on his own in 2027 because his name is Peter Obi and it is his “turn.” My guess is that he and Kwakwanso are leaving the ADC because they realize that they don’t have a chance there against Atiku and co. But, if he will eschew his ego and ambition, it makes sense for him to go under the shadow of Atiku as his Vice, groom himself and expand his own tentacles from within for the next election. You can do so much more from within than from without.
Under our current circumstances, it is going to be hard to get the upper North to support a Southerner (moreso, a Christian) in the 2027 elections and they have a million internal and external reasons for that. That is the reality. In an emergency, you don’t waste time asking why the ambulance does not have double doors to accommodate all sizes of patients; you find the best ways to fit your patient through the available single door! You can work on building a better ambulance later, but for now, you need to get this patient to the hospital!
Peter Obi does not seem to understand Nigerian politics or the mechanics of politics generally. And, of course, he is being edged on by spent forces such as Gen. Obasanjo who is out of touch with, or in denial of, Nigeria’s political reality. Ask those he endorsed and campaigned for in 2019 and 2023. They are the same two actors squaring it up in the opposition class now. So much for his political relevance or vision.
If the so-called opposition continue on their current path, Tinubu will most likely win again in 2027, using the same formula that won 2023 for him. Tinubu does not need to change anything; no serious farmer will change a winning fertilizer in the midst of a bumper harvest season! If Tinubu wins in 2027, it would not be because he worked hard to win, it will be because, as in 2023, the opposition gave it to him because their personal ambitions and ego overshadows their ability to do basic mental calculations. It is their loss, not his.
A. Ateiza Alliu
May 04, 2026.
