Oil Shock, No Regime Change, and Iran Still Standing: Stated War was Nearly Over
Trump Declares the War “Nearly Over”
In remarks to the American public, President Trump described the U.S.–Israeli war with Iran as a “short-term excursion” that is now nearing its end. He said the operation is coming to a close and claimed that Iranian naval and air capabilities had been neutralized, that Iran’s missile capacity had been wiped out, and that the leadership had been decimated. Trump insisted the campaign was ahead of schedule, though he noted he was holding off on striking certain critical infrastructure while criticizing the leadership transition now taking place in Tehran.
Markets React to the War Narrative
Trump’s suggestion that the war could end “very soon” immediately moved global markets. U.S. stock indices rose while crude oil prices dipped in extended trading. Earlier, oil prices had surged above $100 per barrel because of the conflict. That surge appears to be a key reason Trump is now trying to bring the war to a rapid conclusion.
The Oil Shock Behind the Shift
Oil prices have surged to levels not seen since 2022. Brent crude jumped as high as $119.50 per barrel on March 9 before settling closer to $103. West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. benchmark, was trading near $101 per barrel before markets opened in New York. Meanwhile, the average gasoline price in the United States climbed to around $3.50 per gallon. Trump called it “a small price to pay,” but rising fuel costs directly affect American consumers and the broader economy.
Strategic Energy Pressure
Europe faces additional pressure because Iranian strikes have targeted key energy infrastructure linked to gas flows toward Europe. Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG), including propane and butane, is shipped from the Middle East to Europe using specialized gas carriers. Disruptions in this supply chain could further strain European energy markets, especially as global energy flows are already being redirected toward Asia.
The Strait of Hormuz Threat
Trump has also threatened to deploy the U.S. Navy to escort ships through the Strait of Hormuz if Iran attempts to close it. The strait is roughly 21 nautical miles wide at its narrowest point, making it an extremely sensitive chokepoint for global oil shipments. Any military confrontation there could instantly disrupt global energy markets. Critics argue that operating large naval formations in such a confined area exposes them to missile and drone threats from the surrounding coastline.
Political Pressure at Home
Rising energy prices present a serious political risk for Trump domestically. His presidency was built heavily on promises of economic strength and stability. If gasoline prices continue to climb, it could undermine those economic claims and weaken political support ahead of future elections. A struggling economy could shift congressional control, potentially giving Democrats leverage to investigate his administration and its wartime decisions.
The Regime Change Strategy Fails
One of the underlying objectives of the war was regime change in Iran. Trump repeatedly suggested that pressure and military strikes could trigger internal unrest that would lead to the collapse of the Iranian government. That did not happen. Instead, much of the Iranian population rallied around the state in the face of external attacks.
Iran Quickly Reorganized Leadership
After the assassination of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran moved quickly to implement a succession plan. Mojtaba Khamenei, his son, was elevated to the position of Supreme Leader. Trump expressed disappointment with the outcome and suggested he would have preferred a different leadership scenario within Iran’s political structure.
The Shah Option Rejected
Trump also appeared to dismiss the possibility of restoring the son of the Shah as Iran’s leader. Installing an exile figure would have risked repeating past U.S. mistakes in the Middle East where rapid regime collapse created power vacuums that fueled instability and extremist movements.
The Battlefield Reality
While the United States and Israel inflicted serious damage on Iranian infrastructure and military assets, Iran retaliated in ways Washington and Tel Aviv did not fully anticipate. Iranian strikes targeted U.S. bases across the region, creating strategic shock and forcing rapid defensive responses.
No Collapse in Tehran
The central assumption behind the war—that the Iranian government would collapse under pressure—proved incorrect. Instead of triggering widespread internal revolt, the conflict appears to have consolidated political support around the Iranian leadership.
A Strategic Outcome
Far Short of the Goal
Trump and Netanyahu may claim tactical successes in degrading some Iranian capabilities. But their ultimate objective—toppling the Iranian government and reshaping the political order in Tehran—has clearly failed.
The War’s Final Assessment
After ten days of escalation, destruction, and economic shockwaves across the world, the conflict appears to be ending not with decisive victory, but with a political recalculation. What was sold as a quick war to reshape Iran has instead become a costly confrontation with no regime change and no surrender.
In the end, the “short-term excursion” may be remembered as one of the biggest strategic miscalculations of the war.
