A Political Treatise on Power, Policy Failure, and the Anger of the People
BY GIZO JNR KUULYIDAMSU
PROLOGUE
“Democracy is when the indigent, and not the men of property, are the rulers.” — Aristotle
Osun 2026 was not an accident. It was an autopsy.
An autopsy of a ruling party that came with governors, senators, moneybags, and federal muscle — and left with 444,811 votes and a lesson.
It was also a referendum on governance.
Because elections are never just about personalities. They are about bread. About safety. About fairness. About whether the people feel seen.
And on all those counts, the ruling party is bleeding.
The APC and every political actor in Nigeria must read Osun carefully. Because what happened there will happen elsewhere — unless the foundations are rebuilt.
CHAPTER 1: THE ASSEMBLY OF EMPIRE VS THE ANGER OF THE PEOPLE
They came with 9 governors.
Uzodimma, Sanwo-Olu, Aiyedatiwa, Abiodun, AbdulRazaq, Buni, Okpebholo, Oyebanji, Ododo.
They came with Akpabio, Abbas, Basiru, Faleke.
They came with MC Oluomo, Sunday Igboho, and suitcases.
This was not persuasion. This was state capture.
Hotels booked. Traditional rulers “engaged”. Youths “mobilized”. The message: “This is federal power. Don’t test it.”
But Osun people had already tested the pain of having legal and constitutional statutory allocations withheld for over a year, something else: hunger, insecurity, and broken promises.
And they chose conscience over convoys.
Result: Accord – ADELEKE 511,067. APC 444,811.
CHAPTER 2: WHY THE MACHINE FAILED – 5 POLICY SUICIDES
The governors and money did not lose alone. The policies lost.
1. THE ECONOMY: FROM RENEWED HOPE TO RENEWED HUNGER AND PAIN
Food inflation at 40%. Fuel at ₦1000+. Dollar at ₦1600.
“Subsidy is gone” became “subsidy on suffering.”
In Osun, a bag of rice that was ₦35,000 in 2023 is now ₦90,000.
Minimum wage cannot buy a bag of rice.
Traders in Ede, Iwo, and Ikirun know this reality: “We are not voting party. We are voting for our children to eat.”
Machiavelli warned: “Men are driven by two things: fear and interest.”
When people are hungry, fear of government disappears. Only interest in survival remains.
2. INSECURITY: THE STATE THAT CANNOT PROTECT
From Zamfara to Benue, from Plateau to Niger, Nigerians are burying people on daily basis.
Kidnapping is now an industry. Farmers cannot go to farm.
In Osun, though relatively calm, people watched news of other states and asked: “If this government cannot secure Katsina, can it secure us?”
Insecurity destroys trust. And trust is what wins elections.
3. TAXES AND ECONOMIC POLICIES: DEATH BY A THOUSAND CUTS
New taxes. Increased VAT. Telecom tax. FX restrictions.
Small businesses are collapsing. Okada men, market women, and POS operators are angry.
The ruling party sold “reforms”. The people received “pain without explanation.”
As Aristotle said: “Poverty is the parent of revolution and crime.”
You cannot tax people into prosperity and expect their votes.
4. LOPSIDED DEVELOPMENT AND APPOINTMENTS
This is the most corrosive.
Key appointments: skewed.
Key projects: concentrated.
Key agencies: one region dominates.
From NNPCL to CBN, from FIRS to service chiefs, the deliberate and political wicthunt of withholding local government funds to OSUN to frustrate the governor,the optics scream exclusion.
The people will surely ask: “Where is our own in this government?”
When people feel the country is not theirs, they will not vote for those running it.
Plato: “The greatest penalty of not engaging in politics is that you will be governed by your inferiors.”
But the greater penalty is being governed by people who do not see you.
5. DIVIDING US: REGION AND RELIGION AS WEAPONS
Instead of uniting, the ruling party weaponized division.
North vs South. Muslim vs Christian. “Our turn” vs “Your turn”.
Social media became a war of insults. Government officials joined it.
Osun, a Yoruba state with Muslims and Christians, watched this and rejected it.
Because when you divide people, you also lose them.
“A house divided against itself cannot stand” — and neither can a party.
CHAPTER 3: THE CANDIDATE BECAME THE PARTY
ADELEKE ran under Accord, not PDP /APC . And won.
Why? Because voters voted for him, not the logo.
This is dangerous for parties.
When personality > party, institutions collapse.
When people follow men, not manifestos, democracy becomes a market.
But it also shows the failure of the ruling party:
They could not sell their record. So they sold fear.
They could not sell their candidate. So they sold governors.
Osun rejected both.
CHAPTER 4: A WARNING TO POLITICAL HITCHHIKERS LIKE THOSE WHO DECAMPED TO THE RULING PARTY
To those who did not build, but joined:
You entered a house that is on fire.
The roof is leaking: economy.
The walls are cracking: insecurity.
The foundation is termites: division.
You think because you are inside, you are safe.
You are not. You will be blamed for the collapse.
“He who depends on others’ arms stands unsteadily,” Machiavelli said.
You depend on a party that is losing the people.
Wait. The same people who pushed you up will ask you questions.
And they will be angry.
CHAPTER 5: THE 5 WAYS THE RULING PARTY IS RUINING 2027
Let us be direct. Ahead of 2027, these 5 policies are political suicide:
1. Economic Pain Without Relief: You cannot remove subsidy and not replace it with anything visible. Hunger votes.
2. Insecurity as Normal: When citizens are killed and government issues press releases, people notice.
3. Taxation Without Representation: New taxes, no new services. That is how revolutions start.
4. Lopsided Appointments: Every press release that lists names and they are from one region, you lose 5 million votes.
5. Religious and Regional Politics: When government looks like one section, the other sections will look for another government.
Osun was the warning. 2027 will be the judgment.
CHAPTER 6: THE MATHEMATICS AND THE MORAL
511k vs 444k.
It was not rigging. It was rejection.
Rejection of hardship.
Rejection of arrogance.
Rejection of “we own you.”
“The people are the masters of their fate. When they rise, thrones tremble.” — Plato
EPILOGUE: TO THE RULLING PARTY AND THE POLITICAL CLASS
Build structures. Not convoys.
Build policy. Not propaganda.
Build unity. Not division.
Build roads. Not excuses.
Because Kenya is not yet Uhuru.
And Nigeria will not be Uhuru until the voter is greater than the godfather, and governance is greater than grammar.
“When government fears the people, there is liberty. When the people fear the government, there is tyranny.”
Osun chose liberty.
– Gizo jnr Kuulyidamsu )kuulyidamsug@gmail.com) is a public affairs analyst
